Indian leader Evo Morales could become Bolivia’s first indigenous president next Sunday according to the latest public opinion poll and to some strategic appeasement public relations in which he has been involved.
The leader of the peasants’ coca planters’ movement, who is also known for his firebrand political militancy, has managed to widen to five points the margin over runner up conservative former president Jorge Quirgoa Morales, the candidate of the white Spanish roots elite that has ruled Bolivia since colonial times. Mr. Morales figures with 34.2% of vote intention, (a 1.4% increase over the previous poll) and Mr. Quirgoa, 29.2%.
Even in the comparatively wealthy eastern province of Santa Cruz, Mr. Quiroga's stronghold, Morales is second ahead of millionaire businessman Samuel Doria Medina, another establishment candidate. Actually Mr. Doria Medina nationwide support dropped from 12 to 9%.
But Mr. Morales has also undergone a strategic change in his attitude towards the Bolivian Armed Forces and has been meeting with senior military commanders, revealed the La Paz media.
Although the Bolivian military have a century and a half of meddling in politics, for the last two decades they have loyally respected elected governments and democratic institutions having to act sometimes as the final arbiter in South America’s poorest and most politically unstable country.
From those meetings it has emerged that the military pledged to serve loyally Mr. Morales if he’s finally elected president, and the Indian leader vowed to defend the Bolivian flag, unity and keep the national military service.
Mr Morales whose official party is the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS), has in the past clashed with the armed forces. Apparently during the meeting with senior commanders, he said the military should concentrate on defending his country's borders rather than, “attacking the Bolivian people”.
The understanding with the military could be of crucial significance since according to the Bolivian electoral system, Congress chooses between the two best placed candidates if no one obtains 50% of the vote. And in the past, Congressional alliances have impeded the most voted candidate to become president.
In this line of thinking the Commander of the Bolivian Armed Forces R/Admiral Marco Antonio Justiniano called upon the Congress to be elected next Sunday to respect the first majority in the presidential race.
“Let us hope that the first majority to be delivered from the elections is respected, even if it’s a relative majority”, said the Admiral this week during an official ceremony standing next to current caretaker president Eduardo Rodriguez.
Mr. Rodriguez has been president since June 2005, succeeding Carlos Mesa who came to power in October 2003 after a wave of protests forced elected president Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada to flee the country.
The latest survey to be published before Sunday's balloting was done for Usted Elige, Mr. Quiroga’s party, by Ipsos-Captura and included interviews with 4,800 adults, registered in the Electoral roll, across Bolivia with a 2,4% error margin.
The conclusions of the survey show Mr. Morales has steadily climbed in public opinion standing in the four polls of the last month leading to Sunday’s election.
