4-9-07, 3:20 p.m. PDT

Twelve years after Francois Mitterrand, France's first, and to date only Socialist president, left office, the political landscape in both the presidential palace and the National Assembly has moved gloomily toward right-wing social and economic policies.

These policies, of course, have eroded much of the ground gained during the Mitterrand years when the Left was far more aligned. France's perennial unemployment problem, a widening gap between rich and poor and an increased anti-immigrant sentiment went as far as to allow Jean-Marie Le Pen, the far-right racist National Front candidate to make it to the second round of the 2002 French presidential elections, and heightened frustration among the citizenry bringing about both the 2005 'banlieue' riots and the 2006 CPE (First Employment Contract) demonstrations. Yet even with all of the problems, the question Eric Besson asks in his recent Socialist Party tract is whether France is ready to vote for an American neoconservative with a French passport in 2007.

The French might be. Nicolas Sarkozy, the center-right candidate, is in the lead by 5.5 percentage points for the first round. This may not be significant in the typical US election but in a field of twelve candidates for president, one percentage point can be the difference between making it to the second round and having to wait another five years.

In the French presidential elections, numerous candidates will run representing a diverse pool of political views, much unlike the US system. The result of the first round of presidential elections however presents an interesting problem. Only the top two candidates by popular vote move on to the second round. While the first round allows the citizenry to express themselves politically, the second round requires the voter to make a more difficult choice. If supporters of the other Left candidates were to get behind Royal in both the first and second rounds the Left would have a good chance of taking back the presidency and perhaps the National Assembly with its elections taking place on June 10th and June 17th if the trend of voting in a majority politically in line with the president continues.

However, the chance of this happening is not likely because the French Left has been largely in disarray during the post-Mitterrand era. The lack of unity in the Left has been due to the Socialist Party's gradual movement toward the political center becoming a 'mainstream' Leftist party accepting the market economy. The other more traditional Leftist parties still question and/or reject the market economy. Also, some of Segolene Royal's policy ideas have received harsh criticism such as the idea of sending juvenile offenders to 'boot camp' style facilities under military supervision. Royal sees a need for the Left to reclaim national symbols such as the flag and the national anthem and not abandon them to the Right. Her idea that every home should have should have the tricolor flag and display it on July 14th, Bastille Day, the French national holiday and having the Marseillaise sung at her political rallies has been criticized as being overly nationalistic.

Unfortunately, it is not merely growing ideological differences that separate the Left parties. Over the last twelve years the Socialist party, the party that garners the most popular support, has been beset with problems. Infighting in the Socialist party and increased support for both the French Communist Party and the Workers' Struggle party cost Socialist Lionel Jospin the 1995 presidential race. Jacques Chirac then assumed the presidency with the support of an overwhelming Right wing majority in the National Assembly elected two years earlier. The Left had a resurgence in the 1997 legislative elections forcing a 'cohabitation' government where the president and prime minister, the leader of the National Assembly to be from opposing parties. The Left's gain, however, was largely due to the unpopularity of then Prime Minister Alain Juppe's welfare state reform policies and President Chirac's dissolution of the National Assembly to call for new elections. These elections brought a new Left majority with Jospin becoming Prime Minister. The cohabitation continued until the 2002 elections wherein President Chirac was reelected and the Right regained control over the National Assembly.

The current polls show that Sarkozy is likely to take the first round followed closely by both the Socialist candidate, Segolene Royal and François Bayrou, a more centrist candidate. Most projections have Royal in the second round losing to Sarkozy by about eight percentage points.

Interestingly, the other leftist candidates are commanding about twelve percent of prospective votes with Olivier Besancenot of the Revolutionary Communist League at four percent, the Workers' Struggle party candidate Arlette Laguiller at three percent, Marie-George Buffet, the French Communist Party candidate at two and a half percent, alter-globalist Jose Bove at two percent and Green Party candidate Dominique Voynet at one percent.

If a cohesive Left policy program were to unite these voters with the projected forty-six percent who would vote Socialist in the second round, one of two possibilities could occur. Segolene Royal could win the election outright thus ensuring a Left presence in the executive branch. Her election could then influence the upcoming legislative elections giving the Left a majority and affording her the opportunity to choose a Prime Minister willing to implement new policy. If Royal does not win the election, a unified Left could vote in a majority in the National Assembly and force a cohabitation government consolidating the Left's role in setting policy.

What would a unified policy look like? It would have to be a policy that answers the following questions: What does it mean to be French? What is France's role both in Europe and in the world? How will the government continue to provide social protections and public services? How will the unemployment problem be addressed? How will the environment be protected? Several of the Left candidates have similar positions on these questions but the big question is can the French Left unify to take back what has been lost over the last twelve years?

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