10-09-06, 8:46 am

Former Economy minister Rafael Correa is the clear frontrunner in Ecuador’s October 15 presidential race with 37% of respondents, --up 11 points since September--, supporting the Alliance Country (AP) candidate, according to a public opinion poll released by Cedatos/Gallup.

Former vice-president León Roldós of the Ethical and Democratic Network (RED) is second with 21% (up 3 points), followed by Álvaro Noboa of the Institutional Renewal Party of National Action (PRIAN) with 19% (up 8 points) and Congress vice-president Cynthia Viteri of the Social Christian Party (PSC) with 12% (up 2 points).

The rest of the candidates together just manage 11% while 18% are either undecided or will cast a blank ballot, which is 9 points down from the September survey.

Last year, public protests against the elected government of President Lucio Gutierrez intensified after the Supreme Court threw out pending charges of corruption and mishandling of funds against former presidents Abdalá Bucaram and Gustavo Noboa. In mid-April, Gutiérrez instituted a 24-hour state of emergency, but Congress later voted to oust him and finally replaced him with vice-president Alfredo Palacio, who is not directly affiliated to any political party.

Last October 5 the four main presidential candidates participated in a televised debate in which Correa reiterated that he would not negotiate a free trade deal with the United States that has become a controversial issue of the campaign and openly supported windfall taxes on the country’s main export, oil. He also favored a re-negotiation of the country’s significant foreign debt.

Mr. Roldós vowed to 'eliminate the scar of corruption' and Noboa said he would not foster diplomacy with Venezuela or Cuba, another contentious issue of the campaign, adding, 'I’m not a hypocrite'.

Finally Viteri said voters could choose between 'responsibility or more violence and more chaos'. Weak institutions, limited party fidelities and governance has made Ecuador increasingly unstable in the last fifteen years and many of the liberal reforms from the nineties are under review with further promises in the same direction from the leading candidates.

Despite recent high world oil prices and the fact that Ecuador is the second largest Latin American supplier of crude to the US, the country still has onerous foreign debt obligations and a persistently high 60% rate of poverty. Besides Ecuador has a pending dispute with United States Occidental Petroleum which has seen its operating contract cancelled by the President Palacio administration.

Occidental operated oil fields in the north eastern Amazon that produce almost 100,000 barrels of oil per day, about 20% of the country's total output in 2005. The takeover of Occidental's operations was supported by oil workers unions and indigenous organizations, but is also represents the most serious clash between a government and a private oil company in Ecuador in years.

No candidate in Ecuador's elections has suggested that they will change the new oil law, and none has indicated that they will reverse the government's decision concerning Occidental Petroleum's contract either.

Ecuador's finance and energy ministers have emphasized that the takeover is neither a confiscation nor a nationalization, but simply related to a contract violation and upholding of the law. Critics insist that Ecuador has moved into the camp of leftist governments in Latin America, alongside Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and Evo Morales' of Bolivia.

The presidential election is scheduled for October 15 and in the event no presidential contender receives 50% of all cast ballots, a run off will take place November 26. The first place finisher can only avoid the run-off by reaching the 40% mark and holding a 10-point advantage over his runner up.

From Mercosur Press