Analysis prepared by COHA Research Associate Matan Shamir

Posted 8-15-06, 2:30 pm

As Mexico tensely awaits the official results of a court ordered recount of 9.07 percent of the ballots from the contested July 2 presidential election, COHA's Mexican specialist Michael Lettieri is closely monitoring the situation. As of Monday morning, the electoral court administering the recount ñ the TEPJF ñ had not yet released results from that process, though both parties had suggested that the recount presented favorable trends for their candidate. The PAN anticipated only a slight diminishment of Felipe Calderón's vote total, while the PRD suggested that Calderón's margin of victory would be markedly decreased by the recount and that additionally significant irregularities would justify both a full recount and perhaps the annulment of certain polling stations. When the official results are released by the court, COHA will issue an analysis of recent events in Mexico that will seek to place the recount's results in a context of continuing uncertainty about the election's outcome while discussing the implications for Mexico's ongoing process of democratization.

Chávez’s rise to power represented the end of non-pluralist democracy in Venezuela.

In the aftermath of September 11, the Bush administration has specifically and wrongfully targeted Venezuela as a threat to regional security.

Chávez has further distanced himself from Washington by courting the favor of anti-U.S. nations.

But Chávez’s anti-U.S. initiatives remain more bark than bite.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez’s political and ideological opposition to the United States has led to an escalating antagonism between the two countries, challenging the super-powerís deep-rooted preeminence in the region. Though Washington has historically enjoyed a positive, albeit asymmetrical, relationship with Venezuela, the U.S. has increasingly resorted to verbal jabs and more menacing gestures at its former ally since the dramatic rise to power of Venezuelaís flamboyant president in 1998. Unlike his predecessors, Chávez refuses to kowtow to U.S. policy. He has presented a socialist-leaning economic and social program that rejects both the neoliberal reforms promoted by the U.S.-endorsed Washington Consensus and the imperialist nature of U.S. activity in Latin America. Endowed with vast supplies of oil, Chávez seeks to expand his utopian vision throughout the entire region by working to export his populist ìBolivarian Revolution.î Fearing that its own historical hegemony over the region is being threatened, the U.S. has expressed grave concern over Chávez’s leftist orientation, authoritarian character and support of countries it classifies as ìrogue regimes.î Ultimately, we can best understand the deterioration of U.S.-Venezuelan relations as a result of Chávez’s rejection of the long-standing status quo that confirms U.S. dominance in Latin America.

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