4-16-07, 9:26 am

More canaries are keeling over in the mine shaft. In Germany and the United States, bee populations are declining rapidly. Suspected causes range from Asian vorroa mites to chemical spraying, monoculture farming practices, and genetically-modified crops. The results could prove deadly for agriculture and the entire global economy.

In the oceans, the massive slaughter of sharks for soup is also raising profound fears. What will happen if these predators at the top of the maritime food chain are largely wiped out? One possible scenario is that fish species which had been kept in check by sharks may increase in numbers, eating much more of the plankton which supply a large part of the atmosphere's oxygen.

And now, the bleakest report yet on global warming and climate change warns that 'many millions' of poor people face hunger, thirst, floods and disease. Mass extinction of species is likely within 60-70 years, on a scale larger than most of the five major extinction events that have occurred in the earth's history.

Huge numbers of people will be at risk due to sea level rise, storm surge and river flooding in the Asian mega-deltas such as the Ganges-Brahmaputra (Bangladesh) and the Zhujiang (Pearl River). Warming of more than another degree could trigger a multi-metre sea level rise over several centuries from the partial or total loss of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets.

The report is the second of four to be presented this year by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a United Nations network of 2,000 scientists. An earlier report in February said the scientists are 'highly confident' that human activity is the main cause of global warming.

The new document looks at the implications of global warming across the planet, and warns that drastic action is necessary. All regions of the world will change, and nearly a third of the Earth's species may be wiped out if global temperatures rise 3.6 degrees above the average temperature in the 1980s-90s.

That projection is not the worst scenario, since the report was the result of compromises hammered out between scientists and diplomats. Even so, Greenpeace still calls it 'a glimpse into an apocalyptic future.'

In Africa, tens of millions more people may run out of drinking water by 2020, and deadly diarrhoeal diseases associated with floods and droughts will increase in Asia, in both cases due to global warming.

'The poorest of the poor in the world - and this includes poor people in prosperous societies - are going to be the worst hit,' said IPCC chair Rajendra Pachauri. 'People who are poor are least able to adapt to climate change.'

'Don't be poor in a hot country, don't live in hurricane alley, watch out about being on the coasts or in the Arctic, and it's a bad idea to be on high mountains with glaciers melting,' said Stephen Schneider, a Stanford University scientist who was one of the study authors.

While increases in average temperatures may initially raise global food supplies, production will then decline, according to the IPCC. Unlike previous studies which relied heavily on computer models, this report is based on 29,000 sets of data from across the planet, taking the level of scientific certainty to a new high.

The Panel also stresses that many of the worst effects can be averted, by reduction of greenhouse gases and taking actions to reduce the impact of climate change.

'There are things that can be done now, but it's much better if it can be done now rather than later,' said David Karoly of the University of Oklahoma, one of the report authors.

'We still have options,' said Stephanie Tunmore of Greenpeace International. 'There is still time for an energy revolution that will dramatically transform our energy system and create a carbon free economy, reducing greenhouse gas emissions to a level that keeps the global average temperature increase well below 2 degrees C, avoiding the most catastrophic impacts. The one option that is clearly no longer open to us is to continue to sit on our hands and do nothing.'

From People's Voice

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