FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE February 13, 2009 Latin American Information Office
Washington, DC -- A public opinion poll released today by Consultores 30.11 suggests that voter turnout will be very high in a national referendum in Venezuela on Sunday, February 15th, and that the proposed amendment to end term limits for all elected officials will pass by a margin of nearly five percent.
According to the poll, there is a clear tendency among voters to favor the amendment. The ballot asks whether or not to alter five articles of the constitution to allow the president, mayors, governors, and other leaders to compete in elections as many times as they choose. Among respondents in the Consultores 30.11 poll, 46.1 percent intended to vote “yes” to that question, while a slightly smaller 41.4 intended to vote “no.” This corresponds closely with expectations about the result. When asked which side they expected to win, 49 percent of respondents chose “yes,” while 38 percent chose “no.”
Voters who favor the “yes” option also seem more likely to turn out at the polls on Sunday. Overall, 65.8 percent of all respondents said they would definitely vote. However, within the “yes” camp, that rises to 70 percent, while for the “no” camp it falls to 63.2 percent. The majority of those who said they would likely not vote were associated with the “no” camp. Depending on the rate of abstention, this could give the “yes” a margin of victory of up to perhaps ten percent. The most important factor will of course be mobilization on either side.
Additional survey data provides insight into why the “yes” vote appears more likely to prevail at the polls. Of the survey group as a whole, 46.8 percent – nearly the same amount that said they intended to vote “yes” in the referendum – replied that their personal situation was better today than two years before. The far smaller percentages that called their situations “the same” or “worse” were more closely associated with the “no” vote. Asked about their expectations for the future, 59.1 percent said their personal situation would be “better” or “the same” over the next two or three years. 61 percent deemed the direction of the country “good” or “fine.”
Other important findings also indicate that public opinion is quite divided. The two strongest trends with regard to party affiliation were “none” (at 42.1 percent) and United Socialist Party of Venezuela, or PSUV (33.4 percent). On the issue of socialism, 45.6 percent agreed with constructing such a model, while 43.1 percent did not.
Far clearer is the data’s indication that positive appraisals of President Chávez predominate among voters, standing at 48.2 percent, versus 28.6 percent negative. Another 23.1 percent called Chavez’s performance “regular.”
