From Granma

Try as they might, Russia and the United States can claim that the factor of geopolitics is not involved in the struggle for the Ukraine, with the US warning that democracy is at stake there and the Russians going so far as to deny that GP considerations are involved, but in order to believe either claim one must either deny reality or deny the facts. One must be in deep denial in order to accept these claims, even if the Ukrainians, the Americans and the Russians are not. The simple fact and the undeniable reality would seem to be that the Russians hold all the cards, while all the Americans can really do is issue vague and veiled threats that they cannot possibly enforce.

By such threats Colin Powell has put himself and the US out on a limb ready to be sawed off at any moment by Mr. Putin, who would most likely be quite pleased to oblige, and who probably would not be adverse to continuing on with his tree surgery if given the opportunity or the challenge. The Russian President has quite obviously set about the task of restoring order throughout Russia and its sphere of influence, and so ensuring that the Ukraine remains safely in the Russian embrace is merely consistent with such task: indeed, were Mr. Putin to do otherwise would be totally inconsistent with this enterprise of keeping Ukraine within the Russian orbit, would put the Russian president's job in jeopardy and would make Russia even more vulnerable and exposed than already is the case to its South, Southwest and West. He quite clearly has the backing of the Russian people in this regard, so even if he wanted to adopt another policy vis-à-vis Ukraine, he cannot, without destroying his legitimacy, authority and credibility. It is quite interesting that one week he is announcing a new nuclear weapon to be developed by the Russians and in the next his support for PM Viktor Yanukovych, who the Central Election Commission has declared won last weekend's presidential election, which assertion of course Viktor Yushchenko the opposition candidate is disputing.

The basis for the West's claims that said election was fraudulent is that the exit polling conducted by certain organizations indicated that Mr. Yushchenko would win the election and also that there were widespread examples of voting irregularities like ballot stuffing and the like. On the basis of these questionable claims the opposition has taken to the streets in a bid to win there what it could not win at the ballot box, which effort amounts to a coup d'etat by any other name. It is revealing that the US and the West first employ the rhetoric of democracy to advance their interests in the Ukraine, and that when they lose the game they claim that it was rigged from the start. When the outcome is not to their liking they immediately claim foul, as if a truly democratic and honest election would in mean their triumph electorally, which is not necessarily the case. It is just as likely that Ukrainians would vote for the Establishment candidate as they would for the opposition's candidate, if not more likely, as appears to have happened as a result of the presidential election.

The struggle for the Ukraine reminds one of other contests and confrontations between East and West over Berlin, Cuba, Vietnam, Afghanistan and other such famous Cold War battlegrounds, in which case the Great Game between the Great powers continues on in a different guise but with the same rules in force as before. One such rule is that if vital interests are not at stake then one of the players should not bother with getting involved, which rule is violated only at great cost which both have discovered to their great regret time and time again. In the instant case it seems that the Russians have the vital interests at risk, and on the contrary that the US and its allies have no vital interests to protect in the Ukraine, which begs the question as to why they would risk so much in seemingly forcing the issue there. In fact the Russians in general, and Mr. Putin in particular have so much at stake in Ukraine that it is all too easy to foresee Russian intervention, perhaps even invasion and occupation: after all, if the US could invade and occupy Iraq with hardly any acceptable or believable pretext or justification, why cannot the Russians act in similar fashion when their vital and national interests are quite clearly involved in the event, particularly when their national security is also quite clearly involved?

Like other political dramas the one that is coming to a head in Ukraine is replete and complete with contradictions, with the players involved having engaged in role reversal, like actors who switch parts in medias res. As with any drama, this one has its heroes and villains, its producers and directors, its playwright, even its audience. Indeed, it is the task of those of us in the front seats to make sense of the plot, to identify the cast of characters, and then to determine who is really bankrolling the production or calling the shots from offstage.

It's a production that even the most wild-eyed Hollywood producer would never dream of trying to sell to his lenders or some movie studio, and certainly isn't a production one would discover playing on Broadway, or even off, so bizarre is the story line that no one buy it, never mind a bank or a Hollywood high-roller. Take the case of opposition candidate Viktor Yuschenko, who not too long ago seemed like a Grade B movie actor with looks to spare but who had a hard time getting his campaign off the ground. Then he has a private dinner with President Leonid Kuchma and suddenly resembles Count Dracula. His makeover, which he ascribes to a plot on the part of his enemies, which claim the latter of course do not subscribe to, instead describing his sudden transformation as a case of serious food poisoning, somehow energized his campaign, probably because many Ukrainians just felt sorry for the man. The result was that the outcome was close enough in the recent Ukrainian presidential election that he could plausibly claim that the election was rigged and stolen by the Viktor Yanukovych campaign, i.e. the dreaded Establishment. Naturally the Prime Minister and Mr. Kuchma his mentor will have none of it, with the question being just how this little drama with an ever-thickening plot is going to be resolved.

The White House and the Kremlin are energetically denying it, but there is no question but that the evolving crisis in Ukraine is being stage managed from afar, with both sides involved up to their ears in Byzantine intrigue, the stakes being in this latest version of the Great Game the very fate of that beautiful country where East meets West. Some even say that the fate of Russia is also in play, the theory being that if Ukraine falls to the West, Russia cannot be too far behind. In any case, one can easily see how Vladimir Putin's hand is being strengthened by the turmoil on its southern border, just as he was strengthened by the bloodshed in Beslan. It is unlikely that Russia will allow the West to establish a base camp right on its back porch, regardless of what it takes too stop the encroachment and regardless of the circumstances. Mr. Putin has been on a roll lately, and he is not about to allow the West to do swallow Ukraine, not without having to fight for it. The Kremlin has drawn a line in the sand as it were, and the line stops in Kiev or thereabouts, with Mr. Putin in no mood to accept Western meddling. Besides, were he to do otherwise, he might find himself overthrown or at least rendered irrelevant back home, so his own survival and self-interest are also at stake.

The West seems to be employing the usual rhetoric of democracy. The same kind of divide and conquer tactics that have worked so well before, most recently in the Balkans where Yugoslavia was dismembered, now in Iraq where that country is also being taken apart and now being used by the West to try to finish the job of killing off its former enemies once and for all, with Ukraine the newest battleground between East and West, both literally and figuratively. There are rumblings about Russian-speaking Eastern Ukraine seceding from Western Ukraine, which result might after all be the real goal of the United States and its allies. When their plan didn't work out according to plan, and they lost the election, they raised a howl because they thought that having an election would automatically mean their victory. Then they tried repeating their Polish experience, where the unraveling of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War began in the first place. Now they try to close the circle in Kiev, while encircling the Russians.

The problem is that Viktor Yuschenko is no Lech Walesa, and the Yuschenko campaign is certainly not Solidarity. In place of a mass movement or popular uprising we have simply another politician or opportunist with backing from Western interests who really aren't interested in the Ukrainian people, but are really only interested in their own self-interests, all the while seeking to undermine Russia while continuing the ongoing project of its dismemberment. History repeats itself, but usually as a farce the second time around. What is transpiring in the Ukraine is not just a farce, but also a tragedy which only seems to become more tragic with every passing day that the main protagonists fail to reach a solution or a denouement that everyone can live with. What is fascinating is that the Ukrainian authorities are emphasizing the rule of law, the courts and the Constitution, while the opposition attempts to win on the streets what it lost at the ballot box, and is doing so using the most undemocratic tactics imaginable in its bid to win power. This is a major contradiction that we have seen time after time, the latest one being the invasion and occupation of Iraq, where the US is supposedly attempting to implant democracy utilizing the most undemocratic means of all, by which we mean an illegal war and the commission of scores of war crimes.

There is no question but that democracy, or some form thereof, lies in Ukraine's future, but the way to get there must be democratic in itself. The West and its pro-Western Ukrainian allies seem to believe that merely holding an election automatically entitles them to rule, and that they can only lose an election through fraud, when such obviously is not the case. The premises of their campaign are thus faulty ab initio, and their ultimate success is highly questionable at best, particularly with the Russians jealously guarding their backs and their neighborhood.



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