A new joint study by several research organizations revealed this week that African American voters may be key to protecting Democratic leadership in Congress and President Obama's agenda for change.
According to a recent press release on the matter from the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies:
African American voters are strategically located in states and districts where, if they turn out in substantial numbers, they could make a difference in who controls the House, the Senate and up to 14 governorships.
Many of us point to the disaster in 1994 when a ginned up "Contract on America," deceptively authored by the likes og Newt Gingrich (subsequently forced out of GOP leadership due to severe ethics violations), as a mirror of today's political battles.
The authors of this study point instead to the 1986 midterm election when a large turnout of African American voters helped Democrats retain control of the House and regain control of the U.S. Senate and again in 1998 when Democrats won governorships in three Southern states where African American voters make up significant portions of the voting population.
David A. Bositis, an author of the study, said, “There are 20 House seats and 14 Senate seats in addition to 14 gubernatorial races where the black vote has the potential to determine the outcome of this year’s elections."
Widespread predictions that Democrats will endure sweeping losses may be premature if party leaders play a strong ground game that includes persuading African Americans to go to the polls in greater numbers than they have in some other midterm elections, added Dr. Bositis. “The extent of the Democrats' losses will depend on their ability to turn out their most loyal voters, and no voting bloc will be more important to them than African Americans. If they can mobilize a strong black turnout, the Democrats can significantly reduce their potential losses,” Dr. Bositis said.
The authors of the report added:
“It is clear from this analysis that we have not reached the final chapter of the election story in many key states and Congressional districts, and that African American voters could end up being the authors of events if they match their turnout rates from other recent midterm elections,” said Joint Center President and Chief Executive Officer Ralph B. Everett who moderated today’s roundtable discussion.
Dr. Ruy Teixeira, Senior Fellow with The Century Foundation and the Center for American Progress, a renowned political demographer who participated on the panel commented, “This election isn't over yet. While the so-called likely voter poll results look exceptionally bad for the Democrats, it should be remembered that likely voters at this point in the campaign are just a guess as to who will show up on Election Day.”
You may have noticed Republicans have stopped their premature victory laps and posturing at leadership. If every activist and labor movement supporter and democratic-minded person pulls their weight in this struggle, we can overcome this corporate media-backed and dangerous Republican Party insurgency.
