6-24-06, 8:25 am
The unusual circumstances in which the Brazilian electoral campaign is being launched are neither amenable to the mouthing of the usual platitudes, nor to the sowing of illusions.
To begin with, the economic climate is once again clouding over with signs of oncoming storms. The harsh assessment of Ben S. Bernanke, the new president of Federal Reserve System (the United States Central Bank), announcing tough times ahead, and the instability felt in world financial markets in recent weeks are eloquent manifestations of the capitalist system's frail economic and financial health. They give the lie to the optimism until recently displayed by those analysts who have been keen on presenting a tranquil, rosy economic scenario. In order to avoid any actual self-criticism, these builders of castles in the sand are now beginning to debate whether the 'development cycle', the period of 'intense world economic growth,' and the 'new prosperity of the recent five years' have come to an end. Thus, in an attempt to avoid addressing the real essence of the problem, committed as they are to finding ways out of impasses which are inevitable, they argue whether the 'adjustments' they now foresee will be easy or rough, and whether they will come immediately or in the relatively near future.
At the Communist Party of Brazil's (PcdoB) 11th Congress in October, 2005 we were already calling attention to the gravity of the problems presented by the structural imbalances in the United States economy, the gigantic dimensions of its twin deficits, and the resulting indebtedness. In the presence of such factors, it was clear that volatility and instability would emerge as the defining characteristics of the global economic situation, and that the proposed 'way out' would consist of greater protectionism by the United States, coupled with attempts to impose free-trade agreements and methods of financial extortion on dependent countries.
Brazil itself is very vulnerable to international economic instability. The Brazilian economy remains a prisoner of financial usury, dependent on portfolio applications in order to roll over its debts. It is not capable of withstanding the turbulence on the international scene and has not yet arrived at the necessary conditions to insure a virtuous cycle of economic growth.
Brazil is still compelled to follow a restrictive economic policy, including unrealistic inflation goals, high interest rates, and fiscal policies that are incompatible with the social crisis it faces. These policies, such as refusing to grant fair pension increases to retired workers, create politically unsustainable situations, and have exposed the government's parliamentary base of support in the House of Representatives to the shame of suffering a series of defeats, as it waves its now tattered banner before a hypocritical neoliberal right.
The fragility of the world economic situation, with its obvious domestic consequences, does not permit a false sense of triumphalism. Furthermore, there is an incoherency in proclaiming 'successes' in economic policy while at the same time denying basic social rights.
In order to be victorious in the electoral contest this year and during President Lula's probable second mandate, the progressive forces must apply themselves to the task of articulating a different vision. It can do this by means of a rational economic policy aimed at furthering national development, a policy that includes income redistribution and valorization of labor, while defending the nation's sovereignty and the people's rights - those people who can no longer pay their bills as a result of the policies of neoliberalism. A prolonged period of time has now passed, space enough for testing hybrid economic policies. Now, at this great historic crossroads at which the country stands, it is imperative to directly confront the underlying problems and choose the right way out. To put it simply, we must find a new way.
On the political front, as well, the weather will not be calm. Here the exceptional economic conditions and external pressures will have an inevitable impact on the domestic political situation. We are currently confronted with the ruthless application of a policy of force, imposed by United States imperialism, a policy which has buried any false illusions about multilateralism sown since the presidency of Bush senior, and especially during the eight years when the superpower was guided by the Clinton administration. The current attitude is one of vigorous disdain for international norms of conduct and multilateral organizations, especially the UN, which the Bush administration considers irrelevant. The latest events in Iraq, where the occupying forces now stand revealed as a gang of criminal thugs, coupled with the crisis the United States is cultivating with Iran, are preparing the climate for another 'preventive war,' and are ample proof that we are not living in times suitable for the maintenance of illusions.
All the while, in the Brazilian internal situation, US imperialism is also provoking crises and attempting to create an unstable political climate, as evidenced by the tougher stance it is taking toward Bolivarian Venezuela and the recently inaugurated Evo Morales administration in Bolivia. Strengthened by his recent reelection, the US will seek to utilize the repressive Uribe regime in Colombia.
Also part of US strategy towards the Latin American continent, are intensified efforts at imposing free trade agreements everywhere and to extend the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA) by various stratagems. It is always necessary to keep in mind that the basic core of the Brazilian ruling classes, and their principal political parties, the PSDB and PFL, are the forces which United States imperialism relies on to fulfill its threats. These forces will not shrink from using any means, licit or illicit, to retake control of the central government, including planned provocations and anti-democratic conspiracies. Only ignorance regarding Brazil's turbulent republican history could lead anyone to imagine that the 2006 elections will follow a peaceful course, or that a tranquil period of government will ensue if Lula is reelected. And only lack of understanding of global reality and the laws that underlie the historical development of the imperialist power system could lead someone to imagine a peaceable rearrangement of world forces. A party as seasoned as ours by so many class struggles, often bloody ones, cannot believe in the fairytale of a world where wealthy and poor, powerful and subjugated, live together peacefully, like model families united under the guidance of a council of benevolent, kindly smiling sages.
Brazil is capable of playing an important role on the international scene and achieving a new place in the world balance of forces, but that will demand the mobilization of the creative energies of its people, clarity regarding the position it takes in regard to the objective conditions imposed, and the defense of its interests as a sovereign nation by means of wisdom and strength. On the contrary, deluded or submissive, it will always be a colony, consigned to the periphery.
Therefore, in the face of such grave dangers, economic, social and political, and so many attacks by reactionary and imperialist forces that put world peace, national sovereignty, and the security of the entire continent at risk, it would be naive to envisage a balmy political climate during the upcoming electoral campaign, or freedom from conflict during President Lula's second term. Instead of harboring illusions of somehow overcoming the economic constraints imposed by neoliberalism, it is now necessary to fight decisively for national independence and sovereignty and for our social rights, and this will only be possible with a new economic policy. Instead of sowing illusions, some Kantian dream of perpetual peace, good government, and multilateralism, it is necessary to prepare our people for the great anti-imperialist struggle which will sooner or later take place. This is one of the central tasks of the Communist Party. This is the unselfish contribution it makes as it participates, in a spirit of democratic unity, in the struggles on the political and electoral front.
-- Jose Reinaldo Carvalho is a journalist, communications director of Cebrapaz (the Brazilian Peace Council), and a member of the Political Commission of the Communist Party of Brazil's (PCdoB) Central Committee.
Edited for Political Affairs by Peter Zerner.
