10-24-08, 11:21 am
Since losing power in the Senate in 2006, Republicans, with the help of Sen. John McCain, have instigated a record 94 filibusters in order to grind the legislative process to a halt and protect George W. Bush's agenda. On policies such as the Iraq war, sound energy policy, equal pay for women, raising the minimum wage and much-needed health care reforms, Senate Republicans used the the filibuster to defy public opinion and side with George W. Bush.
Just this month, Senate Republicans used the filibuster to block a second economic stimulus package to create jobs and provide working families with relief.
Why does the minority party have so much power in the Senate? Senate rules say that if 41 Senators refuse to close debate, they can prevent a vote on any pending bill. In other words, even if a large majority of 59 Senators agree that a vote on a bill should be held, the minority can block it. Democrats are hopeful to change this dynamic by winning at least nine new seats in this election.
While the electorate has steadily begun to reject the Republican Party, due to the failures of George W. Bush, the looming economic recession, and the erratic campaign of John McCain, the question remains as to whether or not the Democrats can win 60 seats needed to prevent more debilitating Republican filibusters.
Most expert analysis seems to agree that in this election cycle, Democrats have as good a chance as any to accomplish this rare feat. According to recent polling data, 10 Republican seats are legitimate targets for the Democrats..
The two best chances for Democratic gains are in New Mexico and Virginia. George W. Bush won both states in 2004, and until Democrat Jim Webb's victory in Virginia in 2006, both Senate seats in both states were Republican. Today, it appears that Tom Udall (D-NM), with a 16-point advantage, and widely popular former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner (D) are positioned to claim those Republican-held Senate seats.
In Colorado, Mark Udall and his opponent are in a tight race that is expected to remain close until election day. Udall has the advantage of strong Democratic voter registration efforts that have increased the number of eligible voters in Colorado. So far, new voters appear to favor the change concept that dominates this election cycle.
In New Hampshire, observers note that former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen has held a small by steady lead over the Republican incumbent there. In North Carolina and Oregon, Kay Hagan (D-NC) and Jeff Merkely (D-OR) appear to be in position to squeak out victories. Recent polls have Hagan up over her opponent Elizabeth Dole. Hagan's chances are strengthened by the fact that Democratic voter registration efforts have added almost 200,000 new voters in that state.
Additionally, Republicans seem to be running defeatist ads. A recent Republican Party TV commercial on Dole's behalf suggested that a Hagan victory would give Democrats control over both houses of Congress and the presidency, seemingly conceding the presidential race to Barack Obama.
Jeff Merkely's opponent in Oregon, Sen. Gordon Smith, has campaigned on his ties to Barack Obama, who is popular there. While such a tactic might seem a plausible path to victory, some experts suggest it only boosts his Democratic opponent whose party affiliation with Obama puts him in a stronger position to make gains for his state. Recent polling supports this view as Merkley has pulled into the lead.
Three remaining Republican held seats in Alaska, Minnesota, and Georgia are right now labeled as toss-ups. Alaska Republican Sen. Ted Stevens is on the verge of a conviction for accepting illegal gifts from supporters, which could give his Democratic opponent, Mark Begich, a boost in an already extremely tight race.
Georgia Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss, known mainly for 'swift-boating' for Sen. Max Cleland, a decorated, wounded war veteran, is facing a tough challenge from Democrat Jim Martin, who just received a huge injection of campaign cash from the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee. Martin is also favored by high voter turnout from African Americans, and polling shows him in a statistical tie with Chambliss.
Former Saturday Night Live performer Al Franken holds a small lead in a three-way race for Republican incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman's seat.
Two other key races to watch are in Kentucky and Mississippi. Democrat Bruce Lunsford has made a strong showing to grab Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's seat. So far, McConnell's approval ratings remain low and polls put the race at a tie. A strong Ditch Mitch campaign has helped Lunsford raise campaign funds and expose McConnell's record.
In Mississippi, Democrat Ronnie Musgrove has shown well against his Republican opponent in their race for former Sen. Trent Lott's old seat. A special congressional election in Mississippi earlier this year went to the Democrats, a stunning fact that boosted Musgrove's chances. Polls in that race show a statistical dead heat. The only tight race for a Democratic-held seat is In Louisiana, where Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu is expected to fend of a strong challenge from her Republican opponent.
