Economy Still Isn't Rosy

1-11-06, 8:59 am



The release of government figures on employment recently caused the New York Times to describe the jobs aspect of the 'recovery' as 'anemic.' According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy added a mere 108,000 jobs in the month of December.

While the Bush administration downplayed this unexpectedly low number, economists are suggesting that even the overall picture for 2005 shows that the economic recovery after the 2001 recession doesn't compare well with past economic recoveries. They blame the administration's obsession with tax cuts for the rich and spending cuts on social programs as the main source for the drag on economic growth.

Trade policy that encourages movement of production and investments offshore, such as corporate tax loopholes and 'free' trade policies, also contributed to job loss, wage cuts, and resulting general economic weakness.

The non-partisan Economic Policy Institute (EPI) reports that excluding the disastrous effects resulting from the administration’s failure to respond to Hurricane Katrina on the Gulf Coast effectively, payrolls expanded by a monthly average of almost 200,000 in 2005, or 2 million jobs altogether.

Over a similar period during the 1993 recovery, by comparison, the economy added 300,000 jobs per month, or over 3.5 million jobs altogether.

Historically speaking, in all previous economic recoveries that have lasted as long as the current one, the economy has added jobs at a rate twice as fast as this one, making job growth in the present period the slowest on record. Overall what little growth there has been is contrasted by a weak manufacturing sector, the cornerstone of a robust economy and good wages, which lost 51,000 jobs for the year. A tepid holiday shopping season coincided with the loss of 16,000 retail jobs in December alone.

While President Bush tried to hide the job creation difficulties happening under his watch by touting a slight drop in the unemployment rate, he ignored the very relevant fact that the unemployment rate has fallen because government accounting excludes people who are no longer participating in the labor force because of the difficulty of finding jobs.

In March 2001, labor force participation peaked at about 67.1 percent of the working age population. Last month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, this number fell to 66 percent. In other words, anemic job creation continues to squeeze many workers out of the job market altogether.

From this angle it is accurate to say that the government unemployment rate distorts the real jobs picture. People who don't report that they are looking for work because jobs aren't available simply aren't counted. People who work part time or more than 40-hour work weeks aren't factored in either.

When this so-called undertutilized and overworked group is added to the unemployed and uncounted, it is clear that the current economy needs to add around 15 to 20 million jobs with living wages instantly to ensure real 'full' employment.

Unemployment rates by race remain unequal with unemployment for African American workers nearly double that of whites as a whole, and nearly triple that of white men specifically. Latino workers facing a rate of almost one and half times as high as whites. Income averages and poverty rates also reflect continuing economic inequality by race.

EPI reports that wages have fallen behind inflation across the entire economy, poverty rates are climbing, ballooning health care costs are eroding income and savings, and indebtedness is growing.

In sum, the tax cuts/spending cuts and 'free' trade policies of the Bush administration, which is the scope of their breathtakingly elitist economic policy, has not only failed to stimulate normal job creation, it has caused the conditions for one of the slowest and unequal recoveries in history.

While large corporations and the very wealthy have lined their pockets with huge corporate profits, CEO pay, and government subsidies and giveaways from their corrupt Republican friends in Washington, working people are still struggling to get back to work and to pay for the necessities of life.



--Joel Wendland can be reached at jwendland@politicalaffairs.net.