9-16-05,10:51am
CAIRO, 12 Sep 2005 (IRIN) - Egypt’s first contested presidential elections may have been marred by low voter turnout and allegations of fraud, but the polls have set a new precedent in the country’s politics, analysts said.
The elections, which took place on 7 September, could also mark the beginning of significant opening in Egyptian political system if the words of the winner, President Hosni Mubarak, are to be believed.
Speaking in a victory speech to cheering supporters and members of both houses of parliament on Sunday, Mubarak, who has ruled Egypt for 24 years, said: “I will work on creating a modern society for free citizens in a democratic country.”
Such pledges have been met with skepticism before, but Muhammad Sayyed Said, deputy director of the Cairo-based Ahram Center for Strategic Studies says constant repetition of them is a good sign.
Among the promises are the loosening of laws governing political participation and increasing the power of the parliament and the cabinet at the expense of the presidency.
EARLY TEST
The atmosphere surrounding the elections indicates, according to observers, greater tolerance for opposition activities, such as a major demonstration the day after Judge Mamdouh Marei, head of the Supreme Constitutional Court and the Presidential Election Commission (PEC), announced the official results.
The results gave Mubarak 88.6 percent of the vote and his main challenger in a field of 10 candidates, Ayman Nour of the Ghad Party, 7 percent of votes cast.
On Saturday, a coalition of several opposition groups including the leftist Tagammu Party, the Islamist Labour Party and the Kifaya Movement —all of which boycotted the election—held a 1,000-strong demonstration in downtown Cairo.
Watched by a few police officers, the demonstrators marched for three hours, blocking traffic, and condemning what they described as “rigged” elections.
They criticised Mubarak’s re-election. The lack of a heavy police presence was unusual for Egypt.
Sociologist Saad Eddin Ibrahim, a civil society activist once imprisoned by the regime, said the elections had emboldened people and “cut down the image of Hosni Mubarak to human size—he’s no longer beyond criticism”.
“The real winner is civil society,” he added.
According to Ibrahim, the whole experience of monitoring the elections as well as protesting against them has raised a new generation of civil society activists and leaders that will have an impact in coming years.
Hafez Abou Saada of the Egyptian Organization for Human Rights (EOHR), noted a level of maturity had emerged. For example, throughout the election campaign, rallies and protests were allowed, yet the country did not fall apart.
“There were 19 days without emergency law and the country did not catch fire,” he said. “That is important.”
LOW TURNOUT
While the vote represented a landslide victory for Mubarak, observers note that the turnout was just over 23 percent.
During the campaigns, officials from the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) had made clear that they were determined to obtain victory from a high turnout.
NDP official and observers said, were hoping to see a higher turnout out than that in the 2000 parliamentary elections – which was also 23 percent.
“I think it will be hard to get people to vote until there is some differentiation between the state, the government and the [ruling] party—people see them as the same,” said Wael Khalil, a veteran political activist and a member of the Kifaya movement.
“They really didn’t see the possibility of getting any change through elections,” he added, noting that reforms in the next few months and years would be key in reversing this trend.
To Said, reports of low voter turnout indicate “a silver lining”, reflecting a new honesty on the part of the PEC.
In the 25 May referendum to amend the constitution to allow contested elections, the government reported of a 50 percent turnout was widely disbelieved.
“At least the dynamic of judicial supervision, while unsatisfactory and incomplete, has contributed in bringing the system to a more realistic reporting of less fraudulent figures and results,” Said noted.
FRAUD ALLEGATIONS
For opposition and civil society groups, reports of election fraud remain a major concern.
“The results have no relation to reality,” Nour told a news conference while demanding for a re-run, after the results were announced. “We won’t give legitimacy to something that is illegitimate.”
The PEC promptly denied his claims – and turned down his request for a repeat poll.
“The commission checked the request and ended up rejecting it,” PEC spokesman Osama Atawia said. “The facts referred to were untrue.”
Under the law establishing the PEC, Nour cannot appeal that decision.
He has however promised to appeal both the ruling and the formation of the PEC itself. However, his arguments are disputed by election monitoring groups.
“Those violations didn’t affect the final results,” Saada noted. According to his group’s estimate, no more than 10-15 percent of the votes were affected.
Instead, the monitors say, violations included the absence of the indelible ink, voting without the proper credentials, campaigning inside polling stations and election officials encouraging people to vote for Mubarak.
Other voters failed to find their names on the lists or were unaware of the identification they needed to vote.
The Independent Committee for Electoral Monitoring (ICEM), a coalition of civil society organisations which includes the Ibn Khaldoun Centre, said one of the main problems was a lack of clear voting procedures and division of responsibility between polling agents, monitors and supervising judges.
“The electoral process remains vulnerable and easily manipulated by the very same stakeholders of the election outcome,” ICEM’s report said. It faulted the government for not allowing monitors to be present during the final vote count.
The government insists the elections were valid.
“Maybe some violations happened, but we have to agree that we’re seeing an experience that we can build on for a future that realises more freedom and more democracy in the Egyptian society,” the Minister of Information, Anas al-Fiqi, told a news conference after the polls closed on Wednesday.
United States officials told IRIN their administration saw the election as a dry run for parliamentary elections in November, adding that they would watch that poll closely to ensure Mubarak’s regime was serious about opening up political space.
NOVEMBER POLLS
Many opposition politicians and observers see the upcoming parliamentary elections as the real contest, arguing that the presidential event was a rehearsal.
According to Mahmoud Abaza, a vice president of the liberal Wafd Party, participation in the presidential election was a preparation for the parliamentary contests “ because the timetable makes the two elections really one election'.
Nour announced his party’s parliamentary campaigns would begin immediately and said that next week he planned to travel throughout the country to address rallies and drum up support for his party’s candidates. Under previous emergency laws, such a campaign was outlawed.
“If the same permissive environment that existed during the presidential campaign persists through the next few months, that would be a major change in the Egyptian political landscape,” an observer said.
