9-21-07, 9:14 am

In his nationally televised speech on September 13th, attempting to shore up support for his failing Iraq war policy, President Bush looked America in the eye, and without smirking, said, if the US military leaves Iraq, 'Iraq could face a humanitarian nightmare.'

In one six-word sentence, Bush encapsulated all that is wrong and stupid about the administration's invasion and occupation of Iraq. It is at once a denial of reality, dizzying spin, and a bald-faced lie.

Despite the best efforts of US troops who have for the most part fought with commitment, courage, and selflessness (reports of corruption, torture, and atrocities cannot be ignored), the policies and the aims of the Bush administration leading us into Iraq and compelling the troops to remain there – now as Bush insists indefinitely – have not succeeded.

The surge, which began in January 2007, was meant to create political space, as Bush forcefully argued so many months ago, for the Iraqis to hammer out a political settlement to unite the various factions. This did not happen. There is no serious analysis or estimate out there that indicates such a settlement is on the horizon.

In fact, even as President Bush spoke about 'success' in Anbar, he was forced to admit that one 'leader,' known as Sheik Abu Risha, with whom Bush had met in Anbar in early September had been assassinated the very day Bush delivered his rose-colored claims about Iraq's progress.

New facts revealed about 'Sheik' Abu Risha suggest big holes in Bush's Anbar success story. Abu Risha, according to a report by journalist Greg Palast, was no sheik. In fact, he was known in his local area as a con man out to get a share of the US taxpayers' dole. And he wasn't killed by Al Qaeda, as the White House claims. He was killed by real Sunni leaders, writes Palast, who were unhappy with his schemes.

What Bush also neglected to say about Anbar is more telling. According to the Washington Post, a Pentagon report recommending these tactics in Anbar warned that such a situation is “temporary” and that the Sunni groups were intent on using the new relationship with US forces to advance their own agendas, including furthering sectarian conflict.

Bush was silent on how the US prompted these developments by disengaging militarily in the province and arming Sunni groups who fear Shia dominance in Iraq. (In fact, General Petraeus dissembled about the US role in arming Sunni groups, flatly telling Congress that the US had not done so.)

Gen. Benjamin Mixon, US Regional Commander in Iraq, told CNN earlier this year that the US provided arms to Sunni groups. The New York Times reported earlier this month reported that the US also imposes no restrictions on how vast sums of money turned over to tribal groups are spent, including for new guns.

This has led to some speculation that US weapons shipped to Iraq that have disappeared (190,000 missing rifles and pistols) are finding their way into the hands of militia groups, once part of the insurgency, now aligned with the US, and who knows where they'll be next month.

Bush further refused to talk about how ethnic cleansing was the basis of his 'security strategy.' Bush has touted lower rates of sectarian killings in Baghdad, which have fallen to their pre-surge levels, as evidence of greater security. Bush didn't talk about how the difference is the result of a massive population shift in that city from 65% Shunni before the invasion to more than 75% Shia now, almost entirely by force.

Similarly, in Anbar, thousands of Shia families in that province which contains about 5% of Iraq's population, have also been forced to flee.

What is the result? Right now in Iraq, some estimates by the International Red Crescent and UN organizations say that between 1 and 2 million Iraqis are internally displaced. Many are living in refugee camps where they face extreme exploitation by armed gangs who demand money or labor in exchange for rations of food and water.

About 2 million Iraqis have been forced to flee the country altogether. That is close to 10% of that country's pre-war population. Among those fleeing are about 12,000 of the nation's 34,000 doctors.

Since the war began, at least 600,000 Iraqis have died due to war-related causes. Some more controversial statistical extrapolations put the figure over 1 million.

Humanitarian organizations estimate that 8 million Iraqis are in desperate need of immediate emergency assistance. About one-fourth of Iraqi children suffer from malnutrition. Alcoholism is on the rise. About 70% of the population lacks adequate access to sanitary water.

Unemployment is about 50%. Electricity, which is needed to keep things cool, run hospitals and places of business, isn't available much. Cholera, a disease that devastated huge cities in the 19th century, is becoming a public health problem in some places. Violence has not gone away as violence-related deaths have doubled in 2007 over 2006.

So Bush's claim that Iraq could face a humanitarian crisis if the troops came home from Iraq is a flat out denial of reality. No wonder Bush is spending most of his time these days attacking his critics rather than defending his war.

--Joel Wendland can be reached at

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