Job Numbers Paint Gloomy Economic Picture

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6-06-05, 3:55am



The number of new jobs added to the economy grew by a mere 78,000 in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This figure was over 100,000 fewer jobs than expected and almost 200,000 below the previous month. It contributes to a startling picture of relatively weak job creation in a period of supposed economic recovery.

In the last year, job growth has averaged 165,000 per month, according to statistics compiled by the Economic Policy Institute, a non-partisan think tank. Meanwhile, in the same time frame after the 1991 recession, job creation averaged 316,000 per month.

Economists say that job growth per month must average around 140,000 just to keep up with the influx of new workers into the workforce each month. Average job creation during this economic recovery hasn’t kept pace.

This trend of stagnant job creation after the 2001 recession strays from historical averages in others ways as well. Historically, it takes 23 months for private-sector employment figures to return to their pre-recession levels. In this cycle, it has taken 50 months.

More telling is that the manufacturing job sector, usually considered the basis of the modern economy and usually the best paid among non-managerial and non-professional jobs, continues its free fall. So far this year an additional 48,000 manufacturing jobs have been lost, putting the total lost since 2001 at over 3 million.

Other signs of serious underlying economic weakness include the failure of wages for non-managerial “blue-collar” workers (80% of the workforce) to keep pace with inflation, increasing length of long-term unemployment, growth of underutilized workers, and growth in numbers of workers leaving the workforce.

The latter demographic hides the full impact of the unemployment rate, which has declined by a full half point since the recovery began over three years ago. Since the unemployment rate is estimated based on people in the workforce, growing numbers of people leaving the workforce give a false sense that a lower unemployment rate signals real economic recovery.

AFL-CIO president John Sweeney blasted the Bush administration yesterday (June 3) for failing to address the real needs of working people. Bush economic policies, such as tax cuts for the rich and cuts in social spending, have worked to slow the pace of recovery, even while wealthy people and large corporations have benefited on a massive scale.

Says Sweeney, “Once again, as it has over the last four years, the employment report shows that too little is being done to address the needs of America’s working families. We need sustained and real job growth with rising wages. We need retirement security and immediate relief from the health crisis. We need to reject and revisit trade deals that export America’s good jobs. We can—and must—do better.”



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