In an historic shift, Latino voters in Florida who align themselves with the Democratic Party outnumber those who identify as Republicans, according to Florida Secretary of State data released last week.
According to official information, Latino Democratic voters are on top by 3,000 – 418,339 Democrats versus 415,086 Republicans. The new numbers represent a shift by more than 50,000 since 2006.
An additional 353,000 Florida Latinos, approximately, have identified themselves as independents on their voter registration forms.
Several demographic trends explain the partisan shift. According to experts, Cuban Americans, who have consistently delivered majorities to the Republicans, comprise only about one-third of Florida's voting Latinos today.
Larger numbers of citizens whose families originally immigrated from Mexico and Central and South America as well as a growing Puerto Rican population in Florida are partially to explain, note some observers. Others cite generational differences. Younger Latino voters are more inclined to lean to the Democrats or to claim independent status.
This generational divide, according to some media reports, has also appeared within the Cuban American community itself. Fewer younger Cuban Americans identify a harsh US policy toward Cuba closely associated with the GOP as their main concern.
Like most Americans, they see the economy, jobs, health care, and the war as the most pressing concerns that may influence their vote. And while Cuban Americans broadly have been among the most supportive among Latinos of Bush's Iraq war and other foreign policies, that support has been thin and shrinking as with the population at large.
Some estimates say that Latino voters may comprise 14% of Florida's electorate in 2008. According to the Pew Hispanic Center, Latino voters made up 12% of the Democratic Party voters in that state's botched 2008 primary held last January.
The upshot of this statistical reversal is that Florida may continue to be a major battleground in the 2008 presidential election. While John McCain is trying to lure Latino voters in Florida with new Spanish-language ads, his insistence on continuing Bush's war in Iraq with no end in sight, his denial of the serious nature of the economic crisis, his health care tax plan that would not create universal coverage, and his refusal to soften US policies toward Cuba may not provide him the necessary swing among Florida's Latino voters to allow him to carry the state.
In fact, recent polling done while McCain campaigned in Florida at the end of April showed that he could not win more than 44% of the vote against either presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama nor Hillary Clinton, neither of whom were campaigning there at the same time.
The candidate that can provide the clearest end to the war in Iraq, provide responsible and sound economic relief to working families and homeowners, can deliver on universal health care without taxing middle income families on the health benefits, and can outline a humane immigration policy that guarantees worker rights and a path to citizenship is going to carry Florida and the large majority of its Latino voters.
In addition, corruption charges leveled at Rep. Tom Feeney (R-FL), whose ties to Jack Abramoff have aroused FBI interest, may cost the GOP another House seat.
